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Brazil

Latest poll: 21 Oct 2026
Election results

2026 presidential election – first round

  • Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)47.0%
  • Lula (PT)45.2%
  • Augusto Cury2.9%
  • Renan Santos2.2%
  • Ronaldo Caiado2.2%

Election held on 04.10.2026. Turnout: 78.92%. Source: TSE

Brazil: according to the poll average, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads with 48.2%, followed by Lula (PT) (46.0%). Updated 21.10.2026.

Brazil: 2026 presidential election – runoff

Published polls by the polling firms; see the source list below

Poll average: last 10 days

  • Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 48.2%▲ 1.0
  • Lula (PT) 46.0%▲ 0.7

Weighted poll average for the last 10 days (12 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026). Arrow: change compared with the previous 10 days.

Poll trend

Individual polls (172)

DatePollsterSample Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) Lula (PT)
21 Oct 2026Gerp2,40050.0%45.0%
20 Oct 2026Futura2,00048.9%46.8%
20 Oct 2026Palver5,00050.0%48.0%
20 Oct 2026Quaest2,15445.0%44.0%
19 Oct 2026Ideia1,50048.0%46.0%
19 Oct 2026Alfa2,70048.8%45.9%
19 Oct 2026Real Time2,00048.0%45.0%
18 Oct 2026Nexus2,00246.5%45.9%
18 Oct 2026AtlasIntel4,99849.8%47.6%
17 Oct 2026Vox Brasil2,10044.6%46.4%
17 Oct 2026DataTrends2,00049.0%46.0%
16 Oct 2026Gerp2,40050.0%45.0%
16 Oct 2026Verita15,55449.7%47.7%
15 Oct 2026Datafolha2,52047.0%45.0%
15 Oct 2026Futura2,00049.0%47.5%
Show all polls (172)
DatePollsterSample Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) Lula (PT)
15 Oct 2026Ipespe1,50048.0%46.0%
15 Oct 2026MDA2,01446.8%45.9%
15 Oct 2026PoderData3,00047.0%47.0%
14 Oct 2026Indexa2,00044.0%42.0%
13 Oct 2026Palver5,00050.0%49.0%
13 Oct 2026Quaest2,15446.0%44.0%
12 Oct 2026Gerp2,40053.0%44.0%
12 Oct 2026Nexus2,00048.0%45.0%
12 Oct 2026PoderData3,00048.0%46.0%
10 Oct 2026Futura2,00050.0%46.6%
8 Oct 2026AtlasIntel5,02651.1%45.7%
8 Oct 2026Ipespe1,50049.0%44.0%
7 Oct 2026Datafolha2,52049.0%45.0%
7 Oct 2026PoderData3,00049.0%44.0%
7 Oct 2026Vox Brasil2,10042.7%44.2%
3 Oct 2026Datafolha4,00646.0%47.0%
3 Oct 2026Futura2,00048.0%45.1%
3 Oct 2026Palver5,00049.0%44.0%
3 Oct 2026Quaest3,70244.0%42.0%
2 Oct 2026AtlasIntel4,94547.4%47.6%
2 Oct 2026MDA2,00743.0%47.0%
2 Oct 2026PoderData4,00046.0%46.0%
1 Oct 2026Vox Brasil2,10048.2%45.2%
30 Sep 2026Datafolha2,50645.0%48.0%
30 Sep 2026Real Time2,00046.0%45.0%
29 Sep 2026Futura2,00049.0%43.5%
29 Sep 2026Indexa2,00042.0%43.0%
28 Sep 2026AtlasIntel5,00547.7%47.6%
28 Sep 2026Ideia2,00048.0%48.5%
28 Sep 2026Vox Brasil2,10045.2%44.7%
27 Sep 2026Nexus2,00044.0%46.0%
27 Sep 2026Palver5,00047.0%45.0%
27 Sep 2026Quaest2,00442.0%42.0%
24 Sep 2026Datafolha2,00245.0%47.0%
24 Sep 2026Futura2,00049.4%43.7%
23 Sep 2026Palver5,00048.0%45.0%
23 Sep 2026PoderData3,00046.0%45.0%
23 Sep 2026Real Time2,00045.0%44.0%
22 Sep 2026AtlasIntel5,01547.4%47.7%
20 Sep 2026Nexus2,00645.0%46.0%
20 Sep 2026Palver5,00047.0%43.0%
20 Sep 2026Quaest2,00442.0%41.0%
16 Sep 2026AtlasIntel5,01847.2%46.8%
16 Sep 2026Datafolha2,00244.0%46.0%
16 Sep 2026PoderData3,00046.0%44.0%
15 Sep 2026Futura2,00048.1%43.7%
13 Sep 2026Indexa2,00042.0%43.0%
13 Sep 2026MDA2,00240.0%47.3%
13 Sep 2026Nexus2,00346.0%47.0%
13 Sep 2026Quaest2,00442.0%40.0%
10 Sep 2026Datafolha2,00244.0%46.0%
10 Sep 2026Futura2,00045.4%45.0%
9 Sep 2026AtlasIntel5,00046.4%46.2%
9 Sep 2026PoderData3,00047.0%45.0%
7 Sep 2026Ideia1,50046.0%46.0%
7 Sep 2026Nexus2,00246.0%45.0%
7 Sep 2026Palver5,00046.0%44.0%
6 Sep 2026Quaest2,00441.0%41.0%
2 Sep 2026Datafolha2,00244.0%46.0%
2 Sep 2026PoderData3,00045.0%44.0%
1 Sep 2026Futura2,00045.2%45.6%
1 Sep 2026Quaest2,00541.0%42.0%
31 Aug 2026Real Time2,00044.0%44.0%
30 Aug 2026AtlasIntel5,01442.6%47.1%
30 Aug 2026Nexus2,00545.0%46.0%
27 Aug 2026Vox Brasil2,10045.1%44.5%
26 Aug 2026PoderData2,40044.0%45.0%
23 Aug 2026Indexa2,00041.0%46.0%
23 Aug 2026Nexus2,00645.0%46.0%
20 Aug 2026Datafolha2,05843.0%47.0%
17 Aug 2026Quaest12,15032.0%48.0%
16 Aug 2026Nexus2,00344.0%47.0%
13 Aug 2026Quaest2,00440.0%43.0%
12 Aug 2026PoderData2,40045.0%46.0%
9 Aug 2026MDA2,00239.1%48.0%
9 Aug 2026Nexus2,00144.0%47.0%
7 Aug 2026Futura2,00044.0%46.5%
7 Aug 2026Palver5,00046.0%46.0%
3 Aug 2026Ideia1,50043.0%48.5%
3 Aug 2026Quaest2,00439.0%44.0%
2 Aug 2026Nexus2,00245.0%46.0%
30 Jul 2026Datafolha2,00437.0%48.0%
29 Jul 2026PoderData2,40043.0%46.0%
28 Jul 2026Vox Brasil2,10041.1%47.5%
27 Jul 2026AtlasIntel5,02142.9%49.2%
26 Jul 2026Nexus2,00443.0%47.0%
23 Jul 2026Datafolha2,00443.0%48.0%
20 Jul 2026Real Time2,00042.0%45.0%
19 Jul 2026Indexa2,00039.0%46.0%
15 Jul 2026PoderData2,40043.0%45.0%
13 Jul 2026Quaest2,00437.0%45.0%
12 Jul 2026Nexus2,00344.0%47.0%
11 Jul 2026Futura2,00046.1%46.3%
6 Jul 2026Ideia1,50040.0%45.0%
30 Jun 2026AtlasIntel4,99942.3%48.8%
28 Jun 2026Nexus2,00944.0%47.0%
25 Jun 2026Vox Brasil2,10042.8%45.3%
24 Jun 2026PoderData2,40043.0%46.0%
22 Jun 2026Paraná Pesquisas2,02038.4%42.1%
20 Jun 2026Indexa2,00040.0%47.0%
18 Jun 2026Datafolha2,00443.0%47.0%
14 Jun 2026MDA2,00036.8%49.3%
14 Jun 2026Nexus2,01743.0%49.0%
12 Jun 2026Futura2,00042.9%48.1%
11 Jun 2026Datafolha2,00438.0%47.0%
8 Jun 2026Quaest2,00438.0%44.0%
3 Jun 2026Vox Brasil2,10041.3%47.8%
30 May 2026Real Time2,00040.0%45.0%
28 May 2026PoderData2,40042.0%46.0%
27 May 2026Ideia1,50041.4%46.5%
24 May 2026Indexa2,00041.0%46.0%
24 May 2026Nexus2,04543.0%47.0%
22 May 2026Datafolha2,00443.0%47.0%
20 May 2026Futura2,00042.2%47.7%
19 May 2026Vox Brasil2,10038.1%46.8%
18 May 2026AtlasIntel5,03241.8%48.9%
13 May 2026Datafolha2,00445.0%45.0%
12 May 2026Vox Brasil2,10043.8%40.2%
11 May 2026Quaest2,00441.0%42.0%
8 May 2026Futura2,00046.9%44.4%
5 May 2026Ideia1,50045.3%44.7%
4 May 2026Real Time2,00044.0%43.0%
27 Apr 2026AtlasIntel5,00839.7%46.6%
26 Apr 2026Nexus2,02836.0%41.0%
13 Apr 2026Quaest2,00432.0%37.0%
12 Apr 2026MDA2,00230.2%39.2%
11 Apr 2026Futura2,00037.3%39.8%
9 Apr 2026Datafolha2,00435.0%39.0%
7 Apr 2026Ideia1,50037.0%40.4%
29 Mar 2026Nexus2,00038.0%41.0%
28 Mar 2026Paraná Pesquisas2,08037.8%41.3%
25 Mar 2026Gerp2,00036.0%38.0%
23 Mar 2026AtlasIntel5,02840.1%45.9%
10 Mar 2026Ideia1,50035.0%40.3%
9 Mar 2026Quaest2,00432.0%39.0%
6 Mar 2026Futura2,00041.9%35.1%
5 Mar 2026Datafolha2,00433.0%39.0%
2 Mar 2026Real Time2,00033.0%40.0%
25 Feb 2026Paraná Pesquisas2,08036.6%40.5%
24 Feb 2026AtlasIntel4,98633.1%47.1%
9 Feb 2026Quaest2,00430.0%38.0%
7 Feb 2026Real Time2,00030.0%39.0%
7 Feb 2026Futura2,00034.2%36.7%
2 Feb 2026Gerp2,00035.0%39.0%
2 Feb 2026Ideia1,50032.0%39.5%
28 Jan 2026Paraná Pesquisas2,08033.1%39.8%
20 Jan 2026AtlasIntel5,41828.0%48.4%
19 Jan 2026Futura2,00033.3%37.0%
12 Jan 2026Ideia2,00026.5%39.7%
11 Jan 2026Quaest2,00423.0%36.0%
22 Dec 2025Paraná Pesquisas2,03841.0%44.1%
15 Dec 2025AtlasIntel18,15441.0%53.0%
14 Dec 2025Quaest2,00436.0%46.0%
10 Dec 2025Gerp2,00042.0%41.0%
7 Dec 2025Veritá2,51939.2%39.8%
4 Dec 2025Datafolha2,00236.0%51.0%
10 Nov 2025Paraná Pesquisas2,02038.6%45.4%

Pollsters: deviation from the average

PollsterPollsFlávio Bolsonaro (PL)Lula (PT)
Quaest19 -3.4-2.3
Datafolha18 -0.7+0.8
Futura18 +2.0-0.5
Nexus18 +0.6+0.4
AtlasIntel16 +0.7+3.1
PoderData14 +0.6-0.3
Ideia11 +0.1+0.3
Vox Brasil10 -0.6-0.4

A positive number means the pollster gives the party more, on average, than the local trend of other polls (percentage points, adjusted for the number of polls). You can switch on the adjustment in the chart.

Data sources 19 polling firms

All figures are results published by the polling firms themselves. The portal collects and checks them and weights the average by sample size. Objavljene ankete agencija, prikupljeno s Wikipedije.

Polling firms

  • Quaest19 anketa · 20 Oct 2026
  • Futura18 anketa · 20 Oct 2026
  • Nexus18 anketa · 18 Oct 2026
  • Datafolha18 anketa · 15 Oct 2026
  • AtlasIntel16 anketa · 18 Oct 2026
  • PoderData14 anketa · 15 Oct 2026
  • Ideia11 anketa · 19 Oct 2026
  • Vox Brasil10 anketa · 17 Oct 2026
  • Real Time9 anketa · 19 Oct 2026
  • Palver8 anketa · 20 Oct 2026
  • Indexa7 anketa · 14 Oct 2026
  • Gerp6 anketa · 21 Oct 2026
  • MDA6 anketa · 15 Oct 2026
  • Paraná Pesquisas6 anketa · 22 Jun 2026
  • Ipespe2 anketa · 15 Oct 2026
  • Alfa1 anketa · 19 Oct 2026
  • DataTrends1 anketa · 17 Oct 2026
  • Verita1 anketa · 16 Oct 2026
  • Veritá1 anketa · 7 Dec 2025

Compilations and official sources

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About the country

Brazil (capital: Brasília). The national parliament is the Congresso Nacional. The last national election was held on 4 October 2026. The next election is scheduled for 25 October 2026.

This page shows the average of published opinion polls, the trend of party support over time and the list of individual polls with their sources.

Capital
Brasília
Parliament
Congresso Nacional
Last election
04.10.2026
Next election
25.10.2026
Next election type
Presidential election – 2nd round

Frequently asked questions

Who is leading the polls in Brazil?

According to the weighted average of recent polls, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) (48.2%) is in first place, followed by Lula (PT) 46.0%. Last poll: 21.10.2026.

How many polls are included for Brazil?

The page includes 172 published polls from 19 polling firms (Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, Veritá, Gerp, Quaest, AtlasIntel…), from 10.11.2025 to 21.10.2026.

Which party is gaining in Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) gained the most (+1.0 points) compared with the previous 10 days.

How is the poll average calculated?

Polls from the last 10 days are averaged, with newer polls and larger samples weighted more heavily; each pollster counts once. Full details are on the methodology page.